Entries by Timothy Paulson

    Will the Inflation Force Awaken?

    April 1, 2016 2:15 PM by Timothy Paulson

    Investors should take note that the aggressive efforts by central banks worldwide to spark growth could instead rouse inflation from its dormancy.

    Never mind the old saying about how March comes “in like a lion, out like a lamb.” For the world’s central bankers this year, March was the month of the dove. 

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    A Volatile Start to 2016

    January 8, 2016 4:00 PM by Timothy Paulson

    Here are some insights on the January market turmoil—and its implications for investment managers.

    As we pointed out in our year-end U.S. fixed-income market preview, 2016 held the prospect of continued volatility in financial markets, with flare-ups of risk and other uncertainty a likely feature of the post-rate hike world following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy tightening on December 16.  

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    Will a Fed Hike Spell Trouble for the Yield Curve?

    December 14, 2015 10:47 AM by Timothy Paulson

    The central bank likely will raise rates at its December meeting. But the move may not play out in the markets the way investors think.

    With markets finally pricing in an imminent rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), it is time to focus on what may come afterward. 

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    Is Inflation Ready for Its Own "Liftoff"?

    June 9, 2015 4:05 PM by Timothy Paulson

    Greater-than-expected increases in certain price measures have roiled bond markets in the U.S. and elsewhere.

    Inflation is starting to make waves again in fixed-income markets. But this time, the action started outside the United States. A report released by the German Federal Statistical Office on June 1 said that the country’s overall consumer price index is expected to rise to a year-over-year rate of 0.7% in May.  

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    A Pre-Fed Reality Check

    April 27, 2015 4:07 PM by Timothy Paulson

    As U.S. policymakers prepare to meet on April 28–29, here’s a status report for key asset classes.

    With U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers set to meet on April 28–29, we thought it would be a good time to take the temperature of key asset classes as the world awaits more clues about a potential “liftoff” in U.S. interest rates sometime in 2015. (In a follow-up post, we’ll look at how Lord Abbett is positioning its fixed-income portfolios in the current environment.)

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    The Fed: "Patient" Dies, Investors' Risk Appetite Lives On

    March 27, 2015 12:50 PM by Timothy Paulson

    What’s behind the surprising market reaction to the central bank’s March 18th policy statement?

    Financial markets recently were hanging on a single word from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Investors were eager to hear whether the Fed’s policy-setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), would remove the word “patient”—used since December 2014 to describe the central bank’s stance toward maintaining its current zero interest-rate policy–from the statement issued at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on March 18, 2015. The central bank did indeed drop the word “patient” from the post-meeting communique, moving the Fed one step closer to “liftoff”—that is, the first in a potential series of interest-rate hikes.

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    The Fed: Uncertainty Rules

    September 18, 2014 2:10 PM by Timothy Paulson

    Welcome to the post–QE world. 

    Not since September 2013 have investors been as focused on, and uncertain about, a statement from Federal Reserve policymakers as they were for the one released on September 17, 2014. As it turns out, the policy-setting arm of the Fed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), did not explicitly set a timetable as to when it would begin to raise interest rates (it retained the now-famous “considerable time” reference). Nonetheless, the market is keenly aware that a rate hike is still in the cards.

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